Field notes from the future
environmental conditions at four localities in 2100
pp. 67-87
in: Jim Norwine (ed), A world after climate change and culture-shift, Berlin, Springer, 2014Abstract
Missing from the literature on climate change are descriptions of what the specific surroundings at places might be like in 100 years, given the significant environmental changes that are expected. Through a set of short narratives, this chapter attempts to preview environmental conditions in Lower Saxony and Bremen , Germany; Gilan , Iran; Xishuangbnanna , Yunnan , China ; and the Edwards Plateau, Texas, United States. These descriptions of future conditions are interpreted directly from published and peer-reviewed climate data that are projected for the year 2100. Their purpose is to illustrate the type, magnitude, and extent of biophysical alterations that are likely to take place at a localized scale, given the trends in greenhouse gas emissions from human enterprise. Annual water balance charts compare the climate of 1990 with that of 2100 at each location. While the narratives cannot depict precisely what conditions will be like, for the first time they do provide a lens through which we can get a ground view of what it is reasonably likely.