
Publication details
Year: 2008
Pages: 155-159
Series: Synthese
Full citation:
, "Synchronic bayesian updating and the sleeping beauty problem", Synthese 160 (2), 2008, pp. 155-159.


Synchronic bayesian updating and the sleeping beauty problem
reply to Pust
pp. 155-159
in: Synthese 160 (2), 2008.Abstract
I maintain, in defending “thirdism,” that Sleeping Beauty should do Bayesian updating after assigning the “preliminary probability” 1/4 to the statement S: “Today is Tuesday and the coin flip is heads.” (This preliminary probability obtains relative to a specific proper subset I of her available information.) Pust objects that her preliminary probability for S is really zero, because she could not be in an epistemic situation in which S is true. I reply that the impossibility of being in such an epistemic situation is irrelevant, because relative to I, statement S nonetheless has degree of evidential support 1/4.
Publication details
Year: 2008
Pages: 155-159
Series: Synthese
Full citation:
, "Synchronic bayesian updating and the sleeping beauty problem", Synthese 160 (2), 2008, pp. 155-159.