Betting interpretation and the problem of interference

Wlodek Rabinowicz

Lina Eriksson

pp. 103-115

in: Maria C. Galavotti, Elisabeth Nemeth, Friedrich Stadler (eds), European philosophy of science, Berlin, Springer, 2014

Abstract

It has long been common to identify an agent's degrees of belief with her betting rates. Here is this betting interpretation (BI) in a nutshell: A bet on a proposition A with price C and a non-zero stake S (= the monetary prize to be won by the bettor if A is true) is said to be fair for an agent iff the latter is willing to take each side of the bet, to buy the bet as to sell it. Assuming that such a bet on A exists and that the C/S ratio is constant for different fair bets on A, this ratio is the agent's betting rate for A.